Global Warming

"Global Warming! Global Warming! Ahhhhh!"

Admittedly, I believe that global warming is occurring. I also believe that it is, to some unknown extent, affected by human activity. With that said, I am sick and tired of reading about global warming like it's a killer asteroid hurtling at us from space. I am also sick and tired of people blaming every abnormal weather development - be it snow in Texas or warmth in New England - on "Global Warming." It's bloody irritating.

In the past, I've been guilty of blaming "Global Warming" for epically-sucky winter months (see A.D. 2006 December). In addition, I've written about how global warming could affect the climate here in the Finger Lakes region of New York. I think I've written about its potential effects elsewhere, too. However, despite my occasional descents into Chicken Little-type hysteria, most of my writings discuss the potential FUTURE effects of global warming. Why the future? Because most of the weather events that get attributed to global warming - dramatically-warmer-than-average temperatures; snowfall droughts - are simply normal variations in the weather. Global warming is not to blame for these regular ups and downs. Instead, global warming threatens to raise average temperatures over a long period of time. To put it another way, don't blame "Global Warming" for the warmest November on record. Blame global warming for the fact that in fifty years, average temperatures in November will be slightly higher...

Okay, where am I going with all of this? As a few people know, I've been scheming to build the perfect hockey pond for going on a year now. In searching for information on the internet, I came across a web page today that blamed "Global Warming" for the fact that "the few community lakes or ponds that do still exist [in southern Ontario] they [sic] don’t freeze over until the end of January due to global warming." To say that I was beside myself would be an understatement. What an asinine comment!

I live in one of the warmest areas of Upstate New York, which, last I checked, is warmer than ANYWHERE in Ontario. (Yes, even you, Windsor, Hamilton, and London.) Despite "Global Warming," our ponds always manage to freeze over during the winter, providing us with at least three weeks of good skating in all but the most abnormal years. During most winters, there is approximately a week of skating in December, all but a few days in January, and three weeks or more in February. We have skated as late as the third week in March. For anyone to suggest that "Global Warming" is threatening southern Ontario's hockey traditions is ridiculous. To date, global warming has had a minimal impact on skating in southern Ontario and across the northern tier of American states. In the future, global warming may dramatically reduce skating opportunities in these areas, but to say that it has already done so is ridiculous.

To the Chicken Little Canuck who thinks global warming has turned Ontario into Southern Ohio:

Don't be a hoser. Think before you write.

Drought

I just looked at the extended forecast from intellicast.com. It appears that our dry weather will continue for the foreseeable future. Precipitation on June 03, 04, and 08 amounted to a total of 1.1 inches (28 millimeters), which was great at the time. Unfortunately, we've still only had 1.5 inches (38 millimeters) of rain since April 29. That's a severe drought for our area. Normally we would have received about 4.5 inches (115 millimeters) during that time period.

This extremely dry weather comes during the year that I planted a bunch of conifers. What luck, huh?

Living in South Texas led me to cherish rain. When I moved up here, I decided that I wanted to live in an area of high rainfall. Ironically, my new "wet place" was one of the driest areas in New York. In four years, I've experienced both Texas- and Scotland-like weather. 2004 was an extremely wet year. 2005 was one of the five driest years ever recorded. 2006 was another extremely wet year, and 2007 is shaping up to be drier than 2005.

It's impossible to know which of these patterns will become standard. It's entirely possible that the pattern of extremes will continue. I hope that's not the case, because it puts a lot of stress on the plants and animals, and it makes it extremely difficult to plan for tree plantings and forage production.

Whatever happens, I'll continue to roll with the punches.

Rain! Glorious Rain!

We've finally gotten some real rain. Yesterday we got about a half an inch (13 millimeters). It sounds crazy (and it was), but it was the first time that we've had a rain event greater than a millimeter in three and a half weeks.

This morning, the world was green again. It's amazing how quickly nature responds. ...and to top it off, it's supposed to rain all day today and into tomorrow!

Yahoo!

Still dry as a bone, but...

Another weekend is past, and it was another weekend without significant rainfall. Since 29 April, we've received about .40 inches (10 millimeters) of rainfall. We've been unlucky, because some farms in our area have recieved more than 1.5 inches (38 millimeters) in that time period. I'm hopeful that our "mini drought" is near its end; rain is forecast for 8 of the next 10 days.

Despite the extremely dry conditions (for our area), most plants have shown little sign of stress. Instead, they've simply slowed down. It has been nice for those of us with large lawns; the grass has grown much slower that it normally would.

Another unexpected surprise!

"I think that we've seen the last sub-freezing temperatures of the season."

For the second time this Spring, these words have been proven wrong. Incredibly, we awoke to more frost this morning, the twenty-second of May. ...and guess what...I was thrilled!

Through 22 May A.D. 2007:

Days with snow cover: 100
Days with complete snow cover: 67
Total snowfall: 59 inches (150 centimeters)
Greatest snowfall: 20 inches (51 centimeters)
Maximum snow depth: 24 inches (60 centimeters)
Lowest temperature: -2° Fahrenheit (-19° Celsius)
Latest date with complete snow cover: 17 April A.D. 2007
Latest date with any snow cover: 19 April A.D. 2007
Latest date with any snowfall: 17 April A.D. 2007
Latest hard frost: 14 May A.D. 2007
Latest light frost: 22 May A.D. 2007

Weather Update

Through 07 May A.D. 2007:

Days with snow cover: 100
Days with complete snow cover: 67
Total snowfall: 59 inches (150 centimeters)
Maximum snow depth: 24 inches (60 centimeters)
Lowest temperature: -2° Fahrenheit (-19° Celsius)
Latest date with complete snow cover: 17 April A.D. 2007
Latest date with any snow cover: 19 April A.D. 2007
Latest date with any snowfall: 17 April A.D. 2007
Latest hard frost: 04 May A.D. 2007
Latest light frost: 07 May A.D. 2007

I think that we've seen the last sub-freezing temperatures of the season. I haven't decided whether I'll make weather updates during the summer. I've toyed with the idea of recording the number of days above 30° Celsius (86° Fahrenheit)...

Since 29 April A.D. 2007, The Weather Channel reports that we have received 0.22 inches (5.59 millimeters) of precipitation. While we've had dews or frosts every night, it has still become bone dry outside. Such weather is bizarre for this time of year, because May is supposed to be one of our wetter months. Normally I wouldn't worry about the dryness, but, aside from three days with precipition chances from 30 to 50%, we are forecast to have (at least) another 10 days without rain.

In the three summers that I have lived here, two have been marked by significantly wetter than normal conditions. These were separated by one of the driest summers in the area's recorded history. That year started like this one, but I hope it ends differently.